Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Let’s talk stocks

Blogsphere is in slow motion lately. Many blogs aren’t updated regularly. With the warm sunshine days a distant memory, people are not blogging. Fall brings on many activities that may interfere. School starts back, football, basketball. Is it these activities or is it the cooler weather and more slumber moods.

I gave you a promise a couple months back to try and blog a couple times a week. I picked up new hobbies of Waymarking and Geocaching. I have settled into a new lifestyle with little one starting school and our afternoon together. My life isn’t much different from any other average guy. I do a little of this and a little of that. I write a blog, tend to my wife and kid and eek out a living doing the daily grind behind the desk.

Today’s topic is not poker but stocks.

My stock tip (already a little late but not too late): I picked up Garmin about 2 weeks ago. It was in a slump from a previous high. Today it is $2.00 higher per share than when I bought in. Garmin is a manufacturer of GPS units. It is my belief that this industry is sitting on an explosion in use. I know they have been around for several years. However, I think they are now in the stage where intelligent people are creating innovated ways to use them. That is why the industry is going to explode. Cramer from MSNBC is hesitant on the stock. The last statement I read from him was he didn’t like the quarterly report from the company. Like it or not, Garmin is the industry leader in an industry that is going to burst at the seems.

We all know that when you rent a car you can get a GPS unit. However, watch TV tonight and see how many new car ads show GPS units preloaded in their vehicles. This will be a hot race between Magellan (Tom Tom) and Garmin to capture the hearts of automakers to ink partnerships. While both companies will see incredible growth, Magellan is a subsidiary of a much larger company and the impact on the bottom line of that publicly traded company will be a lesser impact than Garmin.

Don’t believe me. Talk with runners. They probably own a Garmin unit that tells them all the information of their run. Distance, speed, etc. Talk with Geocachers and waymarkers. We buy a new unit every other year to keep up with the latest and greatest. The biking industry is the same as runners. It is not too much to think that in the future these guys will not get a printout of the race map but will get a downloadable GPS map to load onto their GPS units. Hikers and sportsman (land and marine) are learning the importance of GPS. Garmin has a hammerhead lock on the sportsman and marine industry GPS units. All these areas I wouldn’t expect Cramer sitting in his lofty New York office to understand. This is a product for the masses across the world (not just USA baby). For those market makers living their life in a 10 square block area in New York riding in a taxis everyday, I don’t expect them to understand.

Let’s also look at the replenishment market. Like computers, these things have a short lifespan. So, mix that with the way they are going to weave their way into our daily lives over the next 5 years and you have a “computer” like revolution on your hands.

Buy it for long term 5~10 years. Come see me when in 10 years that $5,000 investment has made you a millionaire.

Let’s not forget about my trip to Tunica ( I will be taking my GPS unit). See you across the felt. Hopefully with me looking over my large and growing chip stack at your dwindling and re-buy stack.

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